New York City’s major real estate dealmakers are bracing for a knock-down, drag-out battle should socialist Zohran Mamdani become the next mayor – and expressed confidence they will be the ones left standing, The Post has learned.
The two diametrically opposed forces are set to clash after Mamdani – who has espoused a radical, anti-business agenda – handily defeated Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary to become the front-runner in November’s election.
Manhattan’s powerful commercial real estate industry, meanwhile, has shaken off the COVID maelstrom and is enjoying its best time in at least eight years, according to the latest report from CoStar, the authoritative platform for commercial real estate data and analysis.
“The business community had similar doubts when Bill de Blasio took office, yet CoStar data shows New York’s office market enjoyed some of its best days during his tenure,” Victor Rodriguez, author of the CoStar report, told The Post.
“The reality is, New York’s economic engine has so many built-in demand drivers, it’s nearly impossible for any one administration to slow it down.”
While companies as diverse as JPMorgan Chase, Amazon and Pinterest eat up ever more space, and developers such as Rudin, Vornado and Boston Properties tee up new skyscraper projects, Mamdani has targeted large corporations and landlords for higher taxes and even once proposed a Marxist-style takeover or private enterprise by the government.
His ascendancy has left the Big Apple’s business community scrambling to throw its support behind current Mayor Eric Adams, who will run as an independent, and defund Cuomo to end his flirtation with remaining in the race, as The Post’s Charles Gasparino exclusively reported.
“I wouldn’t plan on Mamdani’s inauguration yet,” one powerful real estate figure who didn’t want to be named said.
“He says a lot of things. He wants to make some things free like buses, but those kinds of benefits come at a huge cost. His candidacy might give some people pause, but it doesn’t mean he’ll be mayor. And if he does, he’ll find out right away that he can’t do what he thought he could.”
Another industry legend echoed that sentiment.
“Mamdani’s not an issue at this point. His platform is so ridiculous and impossible, he can’t help but self-destruct by the election,” he told The Post.
The Post reached out to Mamdani as to his view of commercial development and whether he’d seek to impose office or retail rent control, but he did not respond.
The report from CoStar reaffirmed the industry’s confidence that the Big Apple can weather any storm, even from a “Trotskyite” like Mamdani.
It portrays a Manhattan market of nearly a half-billion square feet newly triumphant after years of post-pandemic doomsaying.
“A clear divide has emerged between New York City and the rest of the nation,” the report said.
CoStar found that Manhattan leasing for the first half of 2025 topped the same period in all but one year prior to the pandemic.
Its findings are backed up by the first-half and second-quarter reports by every major commercial brokerage.
All found Manhattan office availability has fallen to between 14% and 15% — a breathtaking improvement over estimates of 20% as recently as six months ago.
The vacancy rate in Los Angeles is as high as 24%, while Chicago is at 26%.
The Big Apple also leads the US in return-to-office by a wide margin and landlords say work-from-home is “in the rear-view mirror.”
As The Post has reported, demand for Park Avenue is so great that virtually no space is left.
Marquee-name tenants at 550 Madison Ave. are paying upwards of $200 per square foot.
Other signs of strength include:
- The highest second-quarter absorption, 51.7 million square feet, since 2000, according to CBRE
- Markets such as Hudson Yards and the Bryant Park area where “virtually zero space” is available, as per JLL
- A second wind even for Class B and C buildings, where second-quarter leasing accounted for 44.8% of the total 8.8 million square feet, up from 35.0% in the four quarters prior, per Savills.
What’s more, projects under construction or planned to rise imminently total a mere 3.6 million square feet — peanuts relative to the Manhattan inventory of upwards of 450 million square feet.
And most of the new space will be owner-occupied or is pre-leased, leaving only 850,000 square feet up for grabs, JLL reported.
According to CBRE the largest first-half deals in the three largest submarkets were Amazon’s 331,165 square feet at 452 Fifth Ave; NYU’s 1.07 million square feet at 770 Broadway in Midtown South; and Invesco’s 204,424 square feet at 225 Liberty St. downtown.
