A survey of likely voters seeks to offer Democrats a blueprint for how to punch back on an issue that’s vexed them in recent elections: immigration.
The poll, conducted in key 2026 battleground districts by Democratic-leaning groups Way to Win and Impact Research and shared first with POLITICO, argues that Democrats — with the right messaging — can drive down President Donald Trump’s strength on immigration by a net 10 percentage points.
The poll does not shy away from Democrats’ overall poor standing on the issue. Republicans overall have an 11-percentage-point net negative job rating on immigration (43 percent approve versus 54 percent disapprove), but Democrats have a 58-percentage-point net negative rating on the issue (19 percent approve versus 77 disapprove).
Democrats can turn the tide, the message testing found, by playing up Trump’s overreach and disregard for the rule of law that they say threatens citizens and noncitizens alike as he carries out his mass deportations. But many Democrats would rather avoid the topic.
“Coming into and out of the 2024 cycle, Democrats were silent — completely — on immigration,” said Tory Gavito, president of Way to Win. “There was just no response at all. This poll is to show Democrats that when they point out how enforcement has failed, they can attack Trump on one of his most favorable policies.”
The survey, conducted in more than 70 key congressional districts, including the 26 “frontline” member list of top House Democratic-held seats the party hopes to defend next cycle, found a weakness for Trump. His initial job rating, which started with 50 percent positive versus 49 percent negative on immigration, dropped to 45 percent positive and 54 percent negative after emphasizing overreach messaging.
The survey used specific examples, like the deportation of a person in the country legally “but deported and sent to a prison in El Salvador because of their autism awareness tattoowas wrongly identified as a gang tattoo” — or a 10-year-old U.S. citizen deported because her parents were undocumented.
Researchers say Democrats have plenty ammunition on the issue. They found policies that separate families and impact children among the most salient issues among respondents. A large majority, 74 percent, of respondents who oppose revoking visa and green cards from people without proof of committing a crime. And nearly eight in 10 respondents do not support sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons.
“Voters view Trump’s policies on immigration and his enforcement of immigration differently — there’s a gap,” said Molly Murphy, president of Impact Research. “They are more supportive of what Trump wants to do on immigration … from a policy standpoint, than how he’s actually going about it.”
Of course, getting voters engaged on the specifics of Trump’s immigration policies can be a challenge. Public polling shows voters who haven’t heard much about the high-profile cases are more likely to approve of the president.
The poll, conducted May 6-11 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, does not capture reactions to the widespread protests in Los Angeles.
The showdown between California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Trump administration’s deployment of the state’s National Guard has also centered on the president’s overreach.
“Democrats shouldn’t be focused on protesters right now,” Murphy said. “We should be talking about the people he’s deporting: people here legally, people here with no criminal records, people who have proof of citizenship and not make this a fight about protesters, because that’s what he wants.”
Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said the party needs to ” keep those stories in the news.” and plans to hold a briefing on the survey findings for members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus early next week on Capitol Hill.
“Trump wants to highlight the chaos that he is helping stoke in LA,” Cesar added. “Democrats should be making sure that more of the focus is on the immigration overreach that has everyday people … deeply upset and deeply troubled.”
