The upcoming Alaska summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is another sleight-of-hand victory for the Russian dictator — but when they sit down at the negotiating table Friday, it’s Trump who holds the cards.
With Trump’s peace deadline imminent, Putin promised a summit, seemingly avoiding any consequences for yet again ignoring a US timeline.
Expect Putin to flatter Trump at every opportunity, while repeating his oft-cited lies about Ukraine’s history and his canard that Russia was forced into his “special military operation.”
Putin never lets facts stand in his way.
He will reportedly offer Trump a “cease-fire” in exchange for a portion of eastern Ukraine and global recognition of Russia’s territorial claims.
For an expert negotiator like Trump, this should be a non-starter.
First, after more than three years of fighting Russia does not control all of eastern Ukraine — and in the past two years of non-stop, full-scale offensive warfare Moscow has gained less than 2% of Ukraine’s overall territory.
Agreeing to his territorial demands would hand Putin his biggest victory of the war.
Second, as President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear, most Ukrainians oppose huge territorial concessions, and his nation’s constitution prohibits him from agreeing to such a proposal without a national referendum.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy and military are buckling under the strain of the war — and the nation simply cannot continue fighting at this pace for much longer.
The conflict has dramatically accelerated Russia’s demographic disaster, with more than 2 million Russians dead, wounded or fleeing the country.
In short, Putin cannot afford to continue this war militarily, economically or demographically, putting him in an extremely weak negotiating position.
Finally, there’s a larger reason for Trump to be wary of falling for Putin’s cease-fire trap: Such an agreement only works if both sides honor it.
Putin says Russia will adopt a law barring future attacks on Ukraine in the event of a deal. But Putin broke numerous international laws and treaties when he attacked Ukraine in the first place.
The rule of law does not exist in Russia today. Putin is the only law.
But while Putin’s quarter-century in power shows without question that he cannot be trusted — ever — he also knows he cannot continue his invasion.
So when he finally meets with Trump, after rejecting all peace proposals for the last six months, he’s going to turn on the charm.
Every American president for the past 25 years has initially been snookered by Putin’s act, believing they could trust him and hoping for the best.
My former boss, President George W. Bush, famously looked into Putin’s eyes and thought he saw a man he could work with.
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared a “reset” of Russian-American relations.
But all of them eventually realized that Putin is a murderous thug running a mafia state, opposed to almost everything we value — including democracy and our basic freedoms of speech, the press, assembly and religion.
Even Russia’s closest allies have learned they cannot trust the autocrat. In recent months, when the brutal dictator of Syria and Iran’s ayatollahs pleaded with Putin for military assistance, Putin said “Nyet.”
He had used their regimes for decades to make trouble for the United States and our allies. But he abandoned them both, given the weakness of his Ukraine position.
We in the West cannot delude ourselves. Vladimir Putin does not care about us or our values.
He wants only to fulfill his self-appointed destiny: to reunify “Greater Russia” — and Ukraine is the next step in his quest.
We need to believe what Putin says about himself and his chosen aims, not the short-term promises he may make to buy time for his grandiose mission.
Trump, the master negotiator, needs to call Putin’s bluff.
Russia’s economy and population are declining rapidly. Its military has lost over a million soldiers killed or wounded, over 4,000 tanks and almost 300 military aircraft.
Putin needs a cease-fire badly.
Trump can use Putin’s weak position to bring lasting peace to Ukraine by imposing a deal with real security guarantees.
Putin has never attacked a NATO nation — and with good reason.
Give Ukraine NATO security guarantees, impose a cease-fire with NATO boots on the ground, and the carnage will end.
It’s time to end Russia’s war on Ukraine — with a Trumpian update on Ronald Reagan’s doctrine of peace through strength.
Gregory W. Slayton is a former senior US diplomat, chairman of Slayton Capital and author of “Portraits of Ukraine a Nation at War.”
