Carlos Alcaraz is through to the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, but his route to the fourth round has been surprisingly shaky.
The two-time defending champion started his tournament with a five-setter against Fabio Fognini, and he also dropped a set to Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round.
In the end, Alcaraz got through so it’s not a massive deal, but it does make you wonder if he’s got his best form as we hurl towards the latter stages of the tournament.
Maybe some off-court distractions are seeping into his game.
Nonetheless, Alcaraz remains the favorite to win Wimbledon and he’s a -1200 favorite to defeat World No. 14 Andrey Rublev on Sunday.
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Rublev betting preview
For a long time, Rublev was one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour. You could set your watch to him. The former World No. 5 would beat who he was supposed to beat, but he’d always have issues raising his level for the big moments.
Rublev has been to 10 Grand Slam quarterfinals but he is 0-10 in those matches.
The Russian does have two Masters 1000 titles on his mantle, but it took a while to get over that hump, too.
Even so, Rublev finished 2020-24 ranked inside the top 10.
But 2025 has been different for the 27-year-old. Rublev has tumbled out of the top 10, and his Win-Loss ledger has looked more pedestrian than usual.
Rublev entered Wimbledon just 11-10 in his previous 21 matches, and he was losing to players ranked well below him.
It does seem like Rublev has righted the ship a bit at Wimbledon, but he will need to be flawless to have a chance against Alcaraz.
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Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Rublev pick
There’s nothing interesting about Alcaraz’s price in this match, but what does stick out is Rublev’s odds to win the first set.
An aggressive player with a powerful forehand, Rublev knows he will have to be on the front foot from the beginning to give himself a chance in this match.
With Alcaraz’s game looking a bit leaky at times at Wimbledon, I think there’s a decent enough chance that Rublev catches the Spaniard in Set 1.
The Play: Rublev to win the first set (+290, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
