First Trust Advisors chief economist Brian Wesbury joins ‘Varney & Co.’ to discuss former Labor Secretary Robert Reich’s warning that President Donald Trump is pushing the U.S. into stagflation.
The U.S. economy added jobs at a slower pace in August amid uncertainty about economic conditions, adding to signs of a weakening labor market.
The Labor Department on Friday reported that employers added 22,000 jobs in August, a figure that was well below the 75,000 estimate of economists polled by LSEG.
The unemployment rate also rose to 4.3% in August, which was in line with expectations and up from the 4.2% reading in July.
The August data follows a similarly soft employment report last month that prompted President Donald Trump to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Job gains in the prior two months were both revised in the August report, with job creation in June revised down by 27,000 from a gain of 14,000 to a loss of 13,000; and July job creation was revised up by 6,000 from a gain of 73,000 to 79,000.
Taken together, employment in June and July was 21,000 jobs lower than previously reported.
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Private payrolls added 38,000 jobs in August, well below the gain of 75,000 jobs projected by LSEG.
Government payrolls declined by 16,000 jobs. Federal government employment fell by 15,000 jobs, while state governments shed 13,000 jobs. Those job losses were partially offset by gains of 12,000 jobs in local government, most of which were in education. Federal employment is down 97,000 jobs since its January peak, and the BLS noted employees on rapid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.
The manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs in August, a steeper drop than the decline of 5,000 jobs estimated by LSEG.
Healthcare employment added 30,600 jobs, which was below the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the past 12 months. Employment continued to trend up in August for ambulatory healthcare services (+12,700), nursing and residential care facilities (+9,100) and hospitals (+8,800).
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The August jobs report was weaker than expected, showing a gain of just 22,000 jobs, well below the 75,000 expected by LSEG economists. (Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Social assistance employment trended higher in August with a gain of 16,200 jobs amid continued growth in individual and family services.
Oil and gas extraction, mining and quarrying employment declined by 5,500 jobs in August after having changed little over the past 12 months.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.3%, and the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.6%. Both measures have declined by 0.4 percentage points over this year.
The number of people considered to be long-term unemployed, defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.9 million in August but has risen by 385,000 this year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.7% of all unemployed people in August.
The manufacturing sector lost more jobs than expected in August, and is down 78,000 jobs this year. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Workers who were employed part-time for economic reasons changed little in August at 4.7 million. These workers would’ve preferred full-time work, but were working part-time because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time jobs.
Multiple jobholders increased by 443,000 jobs in August and represented 5.4% of total employment last month.
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The August jobs report comes as the Federal Reserve is weighing a potential interest rate cut despite persistent inflation, which has risen further from the Fed’s 2% target in recent months as tariffs boost consumer prices, due to signs of weakness in the labor market.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested if employment and inflation are both worsening, policymakers will focus on the side of their dual mandate under the most pressure. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously noted that the central bank likely would’ve cut rates earlier this year but for concerns about tariffs fueling inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation print for July was 2.7%, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation reading for that month was 2.6%. August’s CPI data is due out next week ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 17 rate cut decision.
“The labor market is coming to a standstill as businesses slow the pace of hiring and await clarity on tariffs and Fed policy,” said LPL chief economist Jeffrey Roach, who noted the Fed is likely to focus on labor market weakness in its rate cut decision. “The labor data is probably not weak enough for the Fed to cut by 50 basis points given inflation persistence, so as of now, our expectations are for a 25 basis point cut.”
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Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said that the August jobs report “just about strikes a balance between reinforcing market expectations for a sequence of Fed rate cuts and not yet inviting renewed concerns around recession, so the broad market response should be mildly positive.”
“But concerns about the health of the economy are starting to creep in and a further deterioration in the labor market would soon tip the balance to ‘bad news is simply bad news.’ Equally, a strong inflation print next week could strike new fears about a stagflationary mix,” Shah added.
The market reacted to the August jobs report by locking in expectations for a September rate cut from the Fed’s current federal funds rate range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut was 96.4% yesterday and dropped to 84% today, as the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut rose from zero to 16%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
